Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, November 15th

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly following mixed economic data. Stocks are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 112 points and the Nasdaq up 40 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (1.83%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates pretty close to Thursday’s early pricing.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.83%

112

Dow

27,894

40

NASDAQ

8,519

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Neutral

Retail Sales

The first and more important of today’s two economic releases was October's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.3% rise in retail level sales, slightly exceeding forecasts of a 0.2%. The stronger headline reading is bad news for rates but a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile auto sales came in 0.2% softer than expectations. This data is important to the markets because it tracks consumer or retail level spending, which makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The mixed readings allow us to label the results neutral for mortgage rates.

Medium

Positive

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Also released this morning was the moderately important Industrial Production data for October at 9:15 AM ET. It revealed a surprising decline in output of 0.8% at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% decline. Since bonds become more appealing to investors during weaker economic conditions, we should consider today’s release favorable for rates as it further fuels concerns about the manufacturing sector of the economy. Unfortunately, this report is thought of as only moderately important or we would have seen a stronger reaction to the news.

Medium

Unknown

None

Next week brings us just a couple of relevant economic reports to watch, none of which are considered key releases. The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting are also on next week's calendar, but it should be a much quieter week for rates compared to the previous two. Monday is the only day that shows nothing scheduled, so expect weekend news and stock movement to have the biggest influence on bonds and mortgage rates when the new week begins. Look for details on all of next week’s activities that are relevant to mortgage rates in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

   

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